The New England 2006 Season - Ouch!
publication date: May 10, 2007
Well the season is winding down here in New England and I think its fair to say that 2006 was largely a bust. If there was a bright spot, it was the growing availability of larger bluefish. Lets hope this toothy bite continues. From the 1980s up to around 1993 bluefish were an enormous part of our northeast fishery. And it would be great to have them back. On the other hand, the other inshore species targeted by fly rodders were pretty much “no shows” in 2006. Little tunny and bonito were ghosts this year. We waited and waited and waited to see them, but it wasn't to be. The truth is, in New England waters their numbers have been tapering off for roughly 5 years now. Still, no question this was the poorest showing to date. Last year was bad too, but the tremendous rains of October 2005 gave us pause to think it was simply a weather related issue. Not so this year, the weather was OK. Staying on the subject of tuna, for 3 years now we have had a small but growing inshore juvenile bluefin presence. To the best of knowledge that bite was off too this year.
Most frustrating of all, striped bass - the mainstay of our fishery - were difficult to find in 2006. Yes, live bait fishermen, and a few experienced surfcasters, nailed some huge fish in the spring and fall, but those big bass were the exception to the rule. For most anglers, in most New England locations (Boston Harbor aside), the only bass around in good numbers were small schoolies in the 16-22 inch range. And what’s more you couldn’t plan on the fish being in the usual places on the usual tides. Forget it. The fishery was very unpredictable, even though water temperatures were good and the summer weather stable. In fact the fabulous striper fishing typically found on Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod was largely nonexistent in 2006. Done right scary.
Where have all the bass gone? I feel there are 2 possible explanations for their disappearance. First, we could be witnessing a massive stock collapse. Frankly, given what was caught this year: a few jumbos and mostly small fish, it does feel like the bad old years. Nevertheless, I don’t believe that a failure of the stock is the cause of our poor fishing. For one thing it seems to have happened too rapidly. And current striped bass stock assessments simply don’t support it. Perhaps my refusal to see a collapse is just wishful thinking on my part, but lets hope I’m right. If I'm not were in deep, dark trouble my friend.
A more likely reason for the bass bust is this: the fish have moved. How’s that? It is quite possible that many coastal stripers are now living and feeding farther offshore than in seasons past, putting them well out of the range of the average angler. I would also speculate striped bass are now using different migratory routes, than in years past, in order to reach and return from these new offshore locations. This would explain the sudden crash of the June fishing on the Vineyard and the poor showing in many traditional fall fishing locations. Compounding this offshore move, there is additional chance that more striped bass are summering farther north because of the warmer temperatures. Nova Scotia anyone?
Why would striped bass move out? In some places it may be local issue. For example in recent years there has been a tremendous influx of seals on Cape Cod. How big an effect they have on striped bass is difficult to say. Last spring, however, I walked an outside Cape beach that was loaded with large seals. In the wrack line I found over a dozen small bass skulls mixed in with the seaweed. So at the very least I am certain seals are eating bass. If seals are, in reality, a serious striped bass predator, its logical that stripers would avoid them by swimming out.
The biggest single reason to move offshore would be to find food. If the near-shore waters simply can’t support the striper population, the bass are going to hunt for more fertile grounds. No doubt about it, and believe me that is very bad news for those of us that like to fish from the beach. What would reverse that trend? Keep your finger crossed that we have acres and acres of peanut bunker next year, and that schools of large adult menhaden return to our beaches as they were did in the 1980's. Menhaden stay near the beach and are a bass menu favorite. Their presence would bring striped bass running. And come to think of it, the presences of peanuts might even help us with the little tunny bite.
Lastly, unstable weather patterns- including increasing inshore water temperatures- may be playing a significant role. No question, New England weather has been a roller coaster ride since 1995. Unpredictable spring and fall weather is part of it, but so are unheard of extremes of wet and dry during the entire year. Let me give you some examples. In Connecticut, July of 2000 was the 3rd coolest on record; July of 2001 was the 4th coolest. Yet worldwide, 2001 was the warmest year record to date. The Connecticut winter of 2001/2002 was the 4th driest on record, yet we had a frost on the following May 20th, the latest one ever seen. Across the country that May also produced the most tornadoes on record, 296. In 2003 Connecticut had the wettest June on record, and the 5th wettest year ever recorded. And by October 2003 Connecticut had gone through 8 months of below normal temperatures. 2004 brought a very rainy and downright cold summer. In fact we had 19 days in July below normal, and only few days all summer over 90 degrees. 2005 was very weird. May was the 2nd coldest on record and October was the wettest October ever to hit the books and 2nd wettest month ever recorded. Need more? Remember the 2005 hurricane season? It was the busiest ever to hit the US. In 2006, the period from January to June was the warmest such period ever recorded worldwide. Here in Connecticut we had an extremely wet May and early June, on the order of 9" of rain each month. November is now tied for the 4th warmest November on record. And now on December 1st, the water temperature in mid Long Island Sound is 54 degrees! It should be in the mid 40's. Call it global warming, call it what you want, it can't be doing our fishing any good...
Ed Mitchell. Visit Ed's website.