By Nicholas J. Bax
Marine Environmental Research, Volume 22, Issue 3, 1987, Pages 177-203, ISSN 0141-1136, DOI: 10.1016/0141-1136(87)90035-3.

The effects of a tanker accident releasing 34000 tons of diesel fuel and a blowout releasing 3000 t/day of crude oil on adult sockeye salmon returning through Bristol Bay, Alaska, were simulated. Parameters in the simulation were chosen to maximize possible effects of the oil. Mortalities from the tanker accident were predicted to range from 2% to 18% of the adults passing through the spill area or 1% to 5% of the total returning population. From 3% to 7% of the adults surviving migration through the spill area, or 1% to 2% of the total population, could be tainted at or above 0[middle dot]6 ppm of hydrocarbons in the flesh. As many as 30% of the adults returning to fishing grounds closest to the spill area could be tainted. Effects of the blowout on returning salmon were less severe than those of the tanker accident, with mortalities reaching a maximum of 0[middle dot]2% of the adults passing through the area of the blowout, and no tainting predicted above 0[middle dot]6 ppm.

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