Results of Bayesian methods depend on details of implementation: an example of estima
By Milo D. Adkison, Randall M. Peterman
Fisheries Research, Volume 25, Issue 2, February 1996, Pages 155-170, ISSN 0165-7836, DOI: 10.1016/0165-7836(95)00405-X.
Bayesian methods have been proposed to estimate optimal escapement goals, using both knowledge about physical determinants of salmon productivity and stock-recruitment data. The Bayesian approach has several advantages over many traditional methods for estimating stock productivity: it allows integration of information from diverse sources and provides a framework for decision-making that takes into account uncertainty reflected in the data. However, results can be critically dependent on details of implementation of this approach. For instance, unintended and unwarranted confidence about stock-recruitment relationships can arise if the range of relationships examined is too narrow, if too few discrete alternatives are considered, or if data are contradictory. This unfounded confidence can result in a suboptimal choice of a spawning escapement goal.
Keywords: Bayesian; Decision theory; Salmon; Management; Escapement; Stock recruitment